An often-overlooked factor to consider when making decisions

The factor I want to talk about today is time.  Think about the decisions you made recently whether they be for work or personal.  How often did you consider the question, "How will I feel about this decision over time?  In an hour, in a day, in a week, in a month, in a year, in decades?"  Part of what you want to consider here is, how easily can the decision be undone in the future if needed.

Let's take a simple example that many of you can relate to like making a decision to eat that extra scoop of ice cream for dessert or while on vacation.  Sure, in the moment I want to tell myself, ah, you're on vacation enjoy yourself.  But then, before I buy the double scoop vs the single scoop, do I consider, how will I feel about this in an hour, in a day, in a week, etc.  How many times have said just minutes after eating something, Oh, I probably shouldn't have eaten that?  So next time, consider the question, "How will I feel about this decision later".  Remember I talked about part of your time consideration is, how easily can the decision be undone.  Once I eat that extra scoop of ice cream, I can't uneat it.  I'd have to work out extra harder and longer, and let's face it, that's not going to happen.

The next example I think many people can also relate to.  It happened last week while on vacation.  We were taking a horseback riding excursion to a waterfall.  My wife and most of my friends decided to go swimming in the pool by the waterfall.  As I stepped into the water it was freezing cold.  By this time, my wife and friends were all waist deep or completely immersed and swimming in the water and having a great time.  I stood on the banks telling myself it's too cold, it's too cold.  Then I though... How would I feel about this decision to not join my wife and friends and take a plunge in this once in a lifetime opportunity?  I realized that the minute we got back on the horses and began to ride back, I'd regret not taking the plunge.  So, I did, and I am glad I did.  Coming back to how easily this decision could be undone... it's highly unlikely that I would ever come back to this same spot with these same friends ever so this was literally a once in a lifetime opportunity that could not be undone.

This last example comes from what I've been seeing on the Supreme Court confirmation hearings of Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson.  Stay with me on this, I won't get political, but just share what I observed happening in the hearings.  As expected, both sides were polarized and partisan.  Once side appeared very much against her nomination, while the other side seem to embrace it fully. As you may know, Supreme Court Justice appointments are "for life" or as long as the Justice desires, so once made, effectively, this decision cannot be undone.  But let's talk about what is driving both sides to be so divided.  It's clearly what each member believes to be their values in parenthesis (at the time of the hearing).  So while the appointment can't be undone, someone's values can change over time.  Speaking from experience, I'll tell you that 30 years ago, I was very extreme in my political views.  Today, I am much more centered and moderate.  If I were in a position to confirm a supreme court justice based on what I valued 30 years ago, I don’t think I'd vote the same way today.

So, as you go through life and are making dozens is not hundreds of decisions a day, you may not need to consider the question "How will I feel about this later", but pause for the once that are impactful to you and the others around you, and especially for the ones that are difficult or impossible to undo.

When you are not on track, do these 4 things Mark Zuckerberg did.

In Q4 2021, Facebook's total user base declined for the first time in the company's 17 year history and as a result their stock price dropped by over 20% in a day wiping out $251 Billion in value for the company and $32 Billion in net worth for Mark Zuckerberg.

During an analyst call, Mark did four things that every leader should do when they are off track.

1. He said he was proud of the work the team did in Q4

2. He talked about what Facebook believes impacted the business

3. He shared a plan to get back on track

4. He communicated confidence about that plan and why he was optimistic

When things go wrong, many leaders are tempted to blame the team and citing their shortcomings.  At least on this public analyst call, he didn't do that.  While he didn't take outright responsibility for the loss, his message implied that the failure and accountability lie on the shoulders of the leaders of Facebook and ultimately him.  I'm sure inside Facebook he is emphasizing the urgency and priorities needed from the team to get back on track, but as a leader, never abdicate your responsibility.  Instead, be clear in your priorities and expectations of the team and then be ready to help them to successfully execute on those priorities.

At first blush, it may seem like Mark Zuckerberg was blaming "the competition", specifically naming the unprecedented (and it appears unanticipated) growth of TikTok, as well as transitions toward short-form video causing impression growth in the near-term.  One could argue why this was not anticipated.  The fact is, it wasn't.  And I am sure in your world there are things that arise that you won't anticipate either.  But Zuckerberg is communicating an important element here which sets him up for his next message, that being his plan to recover.  But before coming out and just saying what he will do about the user growth decline, he has to name the root cause.  He has to share what the company believes is the problem to solve.  So sure, the problem was unanticipated, but showing that you understand the root cause lends credibility to your plan.  By the way, One of the biggest mistakes people make when talking about what went wrong is that they spend too much time talking about what went wrong and not talking about what they are going to do about it.  Most of the presentations I see go into excruciating detail where teams share their baselines, they share the trends, then they quantify the problems in detail and ultimately spend 80% of their time on the past.  The only thing about the past that matters is that you understand the root cause.  What is more important is talking about the future.  What you plan to do to recover.

Now that he briefly laid out what caused the growth decline at Facebook, Zuckerberg spent most of his time talking about what he plans to do about it to get back on track.  I won't go into details, but he talked about the company's investment and priority on Reels, Community Messaging, Business Messaging, Ads, Privacy, AI, and bringing it all together, the Metaverse.  What's noteworthy about the plan is that it addresses both the short term growth decline as well as how it all ties into the broader strategy which had previously been laid out on the Metaverse.  Showing stakeholders how you address the problem as well as how your actions are tied into your overall strategy goes a long way to instilling confidence in your plan.

Finally, throughout his speech, Zuckerberg mentions his optimism about certain investments such as Reels, and confidence in the short-term trade offs they are making and he closed with saying he was confident these are the right investments to focus on in 2022.  These are two very powerful words when communicating to stakeholders.  When things go wrong, your stakeholders are looking at you to see how you respond.  You can choose to respond to disruption with panic and anxiety, which others will sense, or you can press forward with optimism and confidence in your plan.  Optimism and confidence allows you to look for a way out of a bad situation without being consumed by it.  Communicating optimism conveys that there is something better in the future, and it motivates you and others around you to pursue it. 

So when things don't go according to plan, 

1. Don't blame your team, but rather show appreciation for their hard work and efforts, then ensure they understand your priorities clearly with the appropriate sense of urgency.

2. Ensure you understand the root cause of what caused you to get off-track.

3. Create a plan that addresses the root cause of what caused you to get off track and ensure that the plan continues to be aligned with your long term strategy.  If you are continuing to change your long-term strategy when things go off-track, you should take a hard look at your long-term strategy.

4. Communicate your plans with confidence and optimism.  One of the most effective ways to lead a team through challenging circumstances is to give them a sense of hope that things will get better.  Often, that possibility alone is the thing that helps keep everyone focused on the mission, one step at a time.  And that, as it turns out, is how you get through a crisis.

How to lead in a VUCA world

Volatility - Characterized by a state (or tendency) of dynamic instability brought about by drastic and rapid shifts.

Be Reliable - Follow through on what is said and agreed to will accelerate positive momentum.

Uncertainty - Unclear about the present situation and future outcomes of your actions

Be Trustworthy - Invest in people, keep teams engaged, involve partners, seek to understand, speak to be understood, act with respect always.

Complexity - Consisting of many different and connected parts: multiple key decision factors

Be Direct - ​Transparency in information communicated and received will gain mutual trust and collaborative efforts

Ambiguity - Open to more than one interpretation; can be understood in different ways; inexactness

Be Understandable - ​Clarity in purpose, direction, responsibilities, and expected outcomes will empower others.